Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.

Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations

Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.

On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.

Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.

The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility

Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.

Seasonal bullish factors

The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.

The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666

(责任编辑：商业)

• ·小赢卡贷精英贷借款审核好通过吗？精英贷资格审查严格吗？
• ·万林物流收盘跌9.99%，主力资金净流出1.13亿元
• ·众股交易所
• ·利骏集团香港(08360.HK)拟发行本金总额为3000万港元的债券
• ·比特币杠杆什么意思
• ·Wb3 社交图谱 CybrConnct 通过 CoinList 代币销售筹集 540 万美元
• ·请问广发真情金卡临时额度怎么调整啊？
• ·银价多少一克-2024银价多少一克
• ·小树时代提现需要多长时间呢？我已经申请提现了。
• ·彭博社：Hashky Group 计划以超 10 亿美元的估值筹集资金
• ·存货借方余额是什么意思
• ·涨停揭秘 | 新亚制程2连板涨停，封板资金5401.83万元
• ·莱特币钱包大小
• ·加密赌场Stak在4100万美元黑客攻击后仅5小时就重新开放提款
• ·Meme日报，一图了解过去24小时热门Meme（2024.10.29）
• ·香港证监会就市场探盘指引发表咨询总结